In the business as usual scenario the average annual work year of employed canadians remains constant. The scenarios considered are business as usual which is a projection into the future of past trends, selective growth in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and degrowth where the average gdpcapita of canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits. Scenario planning at shell and its analysis of the carbon bubble angus gillespie 4. Climate change adds an additional and substantial layer of uncertainty to the mix. While the understanding of degrowth reflected in the article can certainly be disputed it comes across as mainly targeting a. Degrowth and the supply of money in an energyscarce world pp. A reason often given for the lack of action is the concern about the threat to economic growth posed by climate change mitigation and, to a lesser extent, adaptation policies thorning and illarionov, 2005. Debate about the relationship between environmental limits and economic growth has been taking place for several decades. In the degrowth scenario, government expenditure declines to only 25% of its value in 2035 in the business as usual scenario. This is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using lowgrow, a simulation model of the canadian economy. Technical supplement the use of scenario analysis in disclosure of climaterelated risks and opportunities 3 a introduction b scenario analysis c applying scenario analysis d publicly.
They prefer the contraction of economies as over consumption lies at the root of long term environmental. I see mainly five areas, where topics of the degrowth community and the debates on digitalization intertwine. Westpac released today the summary insights of its climate change scenario analysis, published within its 2016 sustainability performance report. Abeer elshennawya, sherman robinsonb, dirk willenbockelc. Technical supplement the use of scenario analysis in. Econometric analysis for scenariobased planning 4 scenariobased planning process a scenario is a plausible sequence of future events that can affect an organizations strategy and operations. Climate interactive creates interactive, easytouse, and scientifically rigorous simulations that enable people to see connections, play out scenarios, and see what works to address the biggest challenges. In economics, the linkages between technological change and growth are not new. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. It declines 15% by 2035 in the lowno growth scenario and by 75% in the degrowth scenario. In other word, future climate extremes may be very different from today. I am pleased to present bhp billitons climate change.
Can we stop the advance of climate change while growing. Degrowth is a call for a radical break from traditional growthbased models of society, no matter if these models are left or right, to invent new ways of living together in a true democracy. Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas ghg emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Climate change is a real financial risk, but the risk depends on the complex evolution of climate policy, technology, and the climate system. Planners and decision makers are often required to develop strategies in the face of an uncertain future. I use lowgrow, a model of the canadian economy, to explore several lowno degrowth scenarios. Epa analysis forecasts robust economic growth with climate. Others have estimated the costs in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation in terms of an actual reduction in gdp, expressing views such as in an economy that is growing at 2. Climate change scenario analysis summary released westpac. Net present value of losses due to climate change216 figure 78. These arguments have reemerged with greater intensity following advances. The scenarios show reductions in ghg, full employment, poverty mitigation, and fiscal balance.
Fundamentally, globalization can be characterized as the worldwide development toward budgetary, exchange, monetary, and correspondences incorporation. Victor and t jackson, a commentary on uneps green economy scenarios. Stock flow consistent models for ecological economics. The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions. The emphasis on monopolistic profits as a driver of endogenous growth is a. If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Strategic growth is intentional, proactive, and consistent with a companys purpose. Stock flow consistent models for ecological economics planetary boundaries stockholm resilience centre replies to criticism of the planetary boundaries concept. Reductions in the scale of the economy will also be necessary.
Scenarios products are included for climate, sea level rise, and population and land. Evidence from the last half century, estimates the potential effect of climate. Growth, climate change and the war of numbers statistics. Climate change and economic growth iii about the series the commission on growth and development led by nobel laureate mike spence was established in april 2006 as a response to two insights. A scenario analysis, ecological economics 84, 206212. Recent progress in applying participatory scenario. Understanding the climate change impacts on the world economy is, obviously, of paramount importance for both climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for egypt. Ecological economics, in press, corrected proof, available online 27 may 2011 download pdf 2010. Ciceros new climate scenario guide explains how investors can. Growth, climate change and the war of numbers features. Being a translation of the french term decroissance, over the past few years the degrowth slogan has seen debates and refinements and is slowly emerging as an alternative ideology for sustainable development.
The isle royale climate change scenarios workshop report 6. These questions illustrate both the risks and opportunities presented by climate change, and explain why climate scenario modelling has. This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to. Economic growth climate change no growth degrowth scenarios the paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and.
Globalization is the procedure of worldwide joining that rose from the trading of world thoughts, items, sees, and different parts of society. Recent progress in applying participatory scenario development in climate change adaptation in developing countries part ii ii summary climate change adaptation strategies need to be. Nordhaus adapted the neoclassical growth model to study climate change, while romer. Scenario analysis is an effective decision support tool that assesses climate change, land use change, and changes in ecosystem services under different resource management models to identify. Implications of climate change for average annual gdp growth rates216 figure 77. Scientists demystify climate scenarios for investors cicero. The seven steps of climaterelated scenario analysis.
A 2008 paper by researchers from harvard, mit and northwestern, climate change and economic growth. In october 2003, a littleknown think tank in the department of defense quietly released a report warning that climate change could happen so suddenly it could pose a major threat to our. Why degrowth is the only responsible way forward naked. But like every other tool and framework in your toolkit, it should be part. It is our hope that the 23 chapters in the handbook on growth and sustainability help to clarify whether we can stop the advance of climate change while growing the global economy, and, if. A scenario analysis tool that allows investors to model the impact of climate change on asset allocation is soon to be available from mercer. A scenario analysis the paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and. Victor, peter alan faculty of environmental studies.
Lets see how scenario planning can work in practice by following the progress of electriciq, a software company that develops smart systems for managing electricity use. Epa analysis forecasts robust economic growth with climate change law. Implications of climate change for economic growth and. Most of the information herein will serve as input to the fourth national climate assessment scheduled for release in 2018. The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and. A four step process for modelling climate risk bnp. A detailed inquiry into the societal costs of the status quo lorek and fuchs, 20 and those of plausible degrowth scenarios. We draw on a diverse literature to present an interdisciplinary exploration of postgrowth conditions in the areas of climate change, ecological impacts, governance, and education, finding that. The article includes an analysis of economic growth and alternative growth paths. A new environmental protection agency analysis of leading climate change legislation shows that the u. Future scenarios analyses bounce me down to the bibliography citations. Substantial reductions in ghg emissions will not be achieved by reductions in ghg intensity alone.